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渔业研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 556-571.DOI: 10.14012/j.cnki.fjsc.2020.06.003

• 论文与报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

台湾海峡三种再分析海面风场资料的评估

张友权   

  1. 福建省海洋预报台
  • 收稿日期:2020-11-12 修回日期:2020-11-26 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2021-01-07
  • 通讯作者: 张友权
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划重点专项—海洋大数据分析预报技术研发

Evaluation of three reanalysis surface wind products in Taiwan Strait

  • Received:2020-11-12 Revised:2020-11-26 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2021-01-07

摘要: 利用2015—2018年台湾海峡浮标观测的海面风速和风向资料,本文对三种再分析风场资料(CFSv2、ERA-I、NCEP-DOE)在台湾海峡的质量情况进行了评估。结果表明与观测风场相比,CFSv2的风速数据平均误差最小(平均偏差及平均均方根误差分别为-0.14 m/s和1.73 m/s),ERA-I与NCEP-DOE对实测风速存在明显的低估(平均偏差分别为-1.80 m/s和-2.06 m,,平均均方根误差分别为2. 01 m/s和2.72 m/s)。CFSv2与ERA- I的风向更接近观测风向,平均偏差(均方根误差)分别为-5. 76°和-5.34°( 23.24°和 22.10°); NCEP-DOE风向误差偏大,平均偏差和均方根误差为8. 80°和42.77°。误差分析显示,ERA-I和NCEP-DOE的风速数据在全年均存在偏低的系统偏差,且偏差在大风速区间(北半球冬季)更加显著。风向偏差大小对时间没有明显的倾向性。此外,在低风速区间,三种再分析数据的风速、风向误差较大,说明再分析对低风速风场的描述能力不足,在该区间可信度较低。综合来看,CFSv2的风场资料在台湾海峡中风速至大风速区间更接近观测结果,可以更好地用于模式预报等工作。

Abstract: In this study,three archived reanalysis wind vectors at 10 m height ( CFSv2, ERA -I,NCEP-DOE) were evaluated by a comparison with the winds measured by moored buoys in Taiwan Strait. The evaluation results revealed that the CFSv2 wind speed was most consistent with the buoy wind speed (with an average bias of -0. 14 m/ s and RMSE of 1. 73 m/s) . However, the ERA -1 and NCEP - DOE winds significantly underestimated the buoy wind speed ( with average biases of -1. 80 m/s and - 2. 06 m/s; the average RMSEs of 2. 01 m/s and 2. 72 m/s). The wind directions of CFSv2 and ERA - I were close to the wind direction,whose average biases ( RMSEs) were - 5.76°and - 5. 34°(23. 24°and 22. 10°),respectively. But the error of NCEP - DOE wind direction was large with an average bias of 8. 80°and RMSE of 42. 77°. It was demonstrated that the systematic deviation of ERA -1 and NCEP - DOE was significant all over the year,especially during the period with large wind speed ( boreal winter). Moreover,large wind speed and direction errors of reanalysis data were examined to be related with lower wind speed, which indicated that in low wind speed range these three reanalysis winds were less reliable. In general,the evaluation of three reanalysis wind products indicated that CFSv2 wind vectors were the closest to the winds at middle - to - high wind speed in Taiwan Strait and were sufficiently accurate to be used in numerical models.